My 2025 Tony Predictions

Welcome back for my annual Tony predictions. Last year I got 11/26 correct, mostly thanks to that Stereophonic sweep. As I’m writing this, I’ve seen 10 shows part of the 2024-2025 season. I know that’s not very many, but I’m still going to try my hand at predictions. Let’s get into it!

Prediction = Green

What I want to win = Blue

Best Orchestrations:

Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time

Will Aronson, Maybe Happy Ending

Bruce Coughlin, Floyd Collins

Marco Paguia, Buena Vista Social Club

David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber, Sunset Blvd

I’ve only seen one of these shows so far. And sadly, I won’t be seeing Floyd Collins until after the Tony Awards, so for this category I consulted a friend. He said that he really enjoyed Buena Vista Social Club and that the orchestrations are similar to the music from the original album: “the chord progression is the same, but there is still considerable improvisation around the progressions.” Being that you can't write what someone is going to improvise I wonder how that works, but it seems that the jazz music is complex. Nevertheless, I do think Buena Vista Social Club will have some serious competition with the jazz music in Maybe Happy Ending. If I guess this category correctly we all have Gerry to thank. 

Best Choreography: 

Joshua Bergasse, SMASH

Camille A. Brown, Gypsy

Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her

Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical

Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social 

I am going to guess BOOP! because to my knowledge it has many dance numbers and Jerry Mitchell is a well respected choreographer. I think SMASH would have had a better chance if it wasn’t received so poorly, which is unfortunate because the tv show was kind of my first exposure to Broadway growing up. Death Becomes Her didn’t have big dance numbers and because Justin Peck won the choreography Tony last year I feel it's unlikely he will win twice in a row. As for Gypsy, there aren’t huge dance numbers either, but the choreography in the number “All I Need Is The Girl” is phenomenal and Kevin Csolak’s talent and flair is what really makes it a joy to watch. I don’t necessarily think this is enough to take the award alone, but I had to recognize Csolak’s performance. I’m even more curious about why John Proctor is the Villain wasn’t at least nominated for this category. I know there’s only really dancing at the end of the show and I suppose I’m not sure if it’s improvised, but I thought it was really funny and something I’d actually see teenage girls put together. It would have been cool to see a play nominated for this category. 

Best Direction of a Musical:

Saheem Ali, Buena Vista Social Club

Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending 

David Cromer, Dead Outlaw

Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her 

Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd. 

As a fan of Michael Arden, I’m hoping Maybe Happy Ending wins. Arden’s direction is always so meticulous and intentional. Do I think Sunset Blvd. will win? Absolutely. Have I ever seen it? No. And I’ll tell you why. I refuse to spend my money on a ticket when a considerable amount of that money is going to Andrew Lloyd Webber, someone who has contributed to right-wing extremism in the UK. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way… it is no secret that fans have loved the Sunset Blvd. revival this season. I believe that minimalism needs to have a purpose, especially when people are paying $200 a seat for Broadway tickets nowadays. I’m not saying that minimalism wasn’t necessary for this production, but when every show you’re directing is sparse, it’s a red flag.

Best Direction of a Play:

Knud Adams, English

Sam Mendes, The Hills of California

Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!

Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray

John Proctor is the Villain became one of my favorite shows. I really want it to win this category but because of the outpouring of love there has been for Oh, Mary! I don't think it will. Oh, Mary! had a more than successful run off-Broadway and it's been thriving ever since. Interestingly, a Tony win won't really affect its longevity, so I say why not give it to one of the few shows that is still open in this category.

Best Sound Design of a Musical:

Jonathan Deans, Buena Vista Social Club

Adam Fisher, Sunset Blvd.

Peter Hylenski, Just in Time

Peter Hylenski, Maybe Happy Ending

Dan Moses Schreier, Floyd Collins

I’m expecting a Sunset sweep. To be honest, all of the musical’s sound quality that I saw this season felt average to me. Being that Tom Francis is outside the theatre at some points it must have been a task to ensure the sound quality is good.

Best Sound Design of a Play:

Paul Arditti, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Palmer Hefferan, John Proctor is the Villain

Daniel Kluger, Good Night, and Good Luck

Nick Powell, The Hills of California

Clemence Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Surprisingly, the best sound design I experienced this season was in a play. I hope and predict Stranger Things will win this category. They really rely on sound design for the horror effects. I know some believe that the Tony’s have a bias towards shows that come from the West End (they don’t tend to choose them as winners very much), so take my guess with a grain of salt.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

Jack Knowles, Sunset Blvd.

Tyler Micoleau, Buena Vista Social Club

Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun, Floyd Collins

Ben Stanton, Maybe Happy Ending

Justin Townsend, Death Becomes Her

Like I said, I think Sunset Blvd will win a lot of awards as it’s getting a huge amount of praise. It must rely on lighting a great deal because there is virtually no set. Personally, I enjoyed the lighting in Maybe Happy Ending and I thought it was aesthetically pleasing. On the other hand, I loved the lighting in Operation Mincemeat. It was so colorful and fun that I think they were snubbed. This may be due to that West End bias I talked about earlier, it's not my fault British people do theatre better.

Best Lighting Design of a Play:

Natasha Chivers, The Hills of California

Jon Clark, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Heather Gilbert and David Bengali, Good Night, and Good Luck

Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski, John Proctor is the Villain

Nick Schlieper, The Picture of Dorian Gray

To my knowledge, most of these plays have a pretty basic lighting design. I know the use of lighting didn’t land with everyone in John Proctor is the Villain, but I really liked that it showed the inner turmoil of the characters. Regardless, I still think Stranger Things should be awarded for lighting. I acknowledge that Good Night, and Good Luck makes use of projections and probably relies on them to create tv screens, therefore it’s a good contender too.

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club

Gregg Barnes, BOOP! The Musical 

Clint Ramos, Maybe Happy Ending 

Paul Tazewell, Death Becomes Her 

Catherine Zuber, Just in Time

To me, the obvious winner here is Death Becomes Her. Not only is Tazewell highly acclaimed, but his costumes had to be extremely technical for this show. One of his costumes literally had to have a giant hole in it and it still managed to look beautiful. While I didn’t love Death Becomes Her, the costuming was one of the better parts of the musical. I also think the Tony committee will want to award Tazewell for all his hard work on the Wicked movie this past and ongoing year. 

Best Costume Design of a Play:

Brenda Abbandandolo, Good Night, and Good Luck

Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Rob Howell, The Hills of California

Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!

Brigitte Reiffenstuel, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

I have no idea what is going to win as most of these are period costumes and honestly pretty basic. My best guess is Oh, Mary! because it pretty much nails Mary Todd Lincoln's iconic black dress. Not to mention, I assume it serves as a metaphor for Mary’s mental health. I haven’t seen the show but I know Abraham Lincoln is a character in it, so I assume she is imagining him hence why she’s in a black dress (back then black was used to show that one was a widow). Either way, I liked the ‘50s costumes in Stranger Things the best just because I appreciate the decade. None of these costumes seem particularly intricate, but I’m not sure that voters care about intricacy anyways. 

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

Rachel Hauck, Swept Away

Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending

Arnulfo Maldonado, Buena Vista Social Club

Derek McLane, Death Becomes Her 

Derek McLane, Just in Time

This was the only category Swept Away was nominated for and for good reason. I thought Swept Away was just okay overall, but the set is truly show stopping and it completely transforms in the middle of the show. None of these sets have anything on Swept Away. 

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

Marsha Ginsberg, English

Rob Howell, The Hills of California

Marg Horwell and David Bergman, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Miriam Buether and 59, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Scott Pask, Good Night, and Good Luck

I’m again rooting for Stranger Things to win this. They had big shoes to fill because the show takes place in so many different places; a ship, a house, a school, a hospital, and within the cracks of the aether known as the “Upside Down.” Seeing as the rest of these sets don’t have nearly as many elements to them, Stranger Things should win. 

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre:

Dead Outlaw, Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna 

Death Becomes Her, Music & Lyrics: Julia Mattison and Noel Carey

Maybe Happy Ending, Music: Will Aronson Lyrics: Will Aronson and Hue

Park

Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical, Music & Lyrics: David Cumming,

Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts

Real Women Have Curves: The Musical, Music & Lyrics: Joy Huerta and

Benjamin Velez

I just think Maybe Happy Ending's music is so beautiful and the jazz music sounds authentic to that of the ‘50s/’60s where the character Oliver gets a lot of his favorite artists from. It also must have been a challenge to translate the lyrics from the Korean version of the musical. It must be quite difficult to basically have to make new lyrics that have the same meaning as the original ones in a completely different language, especially when they have to rhyme. 

Best Book of a Musical:

Buena Vista Social Club

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical

I think it was really difficult to summarize all the history that Dead Outlaw was into a one act show, but it was done seamlessly. The pacing of the show was great too, I hope it wins. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical:

Brooks Ashmanskas, SMASH

Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw 

Danny Burstein, Gypsy

Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical 

Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins

Malone pulls off the most heartbreaking performance I have seen this entire season. When he sings “Dear Bill” almost everyone in the audience breaks down crying. I’ve never experienced anyone I know going off to war, but his performance truly made me feel that pain. I love all of these actors, though I think Tony voters will recognize Malone's distinguished performance. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical:

Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw 

Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time

Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves: The Musical

Joy Woods, Gypsy

I’m rooting for Woods’ success since last year she didn’t get her Tony for The Notebook. This is another difficult and emotional role to play and she did it without being outshined by Audra McDonald. I really appreciated Knitel’s performance in Dead Outlaw. She has to play so many different characters and quickly at that. I think she’s a phenomenal actress but Tony voters may lose sight of her performance because there are so many talented women in this category. I just wanted to shout her out!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play:

Glenn Davis, Purpose

Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor is the Villain

Francis Jue, Yellow Face

Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross

Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

I know Ebert already has a Tony, but I think he's one of those actors that is so phenomenal they deserve a bunch of Tony's. He's incredibly skilled at playing characters with nuance to them. I don’t think however, that he will win for his performance in John Proctor is the Villain and I’d much rather that the women who are a part of the show get rewarded. Although I haven’t seen Davis perform, I saw that Purpose won the Pulitzer Prize, therefore I would assume the performances in it are very strong. Also shoutout to Conrad just because I love him and think he’s an underrated actor as well, I just have a feeling that in Oh, Mary! Mary Todd is more of the focal point. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play:

Tala Ashe, English 

Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day

Marjan Neshat, English

Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain

Kara Young, Purpose

I think the two actresses from English may cancel each other out. Additionally, since Young won a Tony just last year I would be surprised if they awarded her twice in a row. That just leaves Hecht and Strazza. I loved Strazza’s performance, she created comedic relief as well as tension. Alas, I think the odds may be against her because she is so young and this is only her 2nd Broadway show. I’m still holding out hope!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical:

Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending 

Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw 

Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.

Jonathan Groff, Just in Time

James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong

Musical

Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins

As usual this is an extremely competitive category. I think and hope that Durand is awarded. He is doing the most in Dead Outlaw. He has a fit all over the stage... until of course he has to play dead for half the show. It’s got to be extremely difficult to stay still for such a long period of time. I didn’t see him move once! Maybe the voters will find this kind of gimmicky, so it's hard to say. I will also mention that Criss’s performance is really moving. I am a fan of Iglehart and Groff too, but it seems that the Tonys keep things pretty even and Groff got an award last year and Iglehart was awarded a few years ago too. I hope Jordan gets his Tony award soon-just like all of these people he has dedicated his life to the theatre-I just don’t think it will be for Floyd Collins. I can also see Tom Francis winning this award because much like Timothee Chalamet and that damn Oscar earlier this year, Francis has been non-stop campaigning for this award.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical:

Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her 

Audra McDonald, Gypsy

Jasmine Amy Rogers, BOOP! The Musical

Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset BIvd.

Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her

First of all, let's just agree Helen J. Shen was snubbed here, her and Darren Criss are obviously equals. I know she's a bit younger and Maybe Happy Ending is her Broadway debut, but she should have at least been nominated. Notice how last year someone from The Outsiders was nominated when it was his first Broadway show. Notice how it was a white man. He and Shen are about the same age. He literally had allegations against him that were known about for months (and they still have not been resolved), but that didn’t stop him from getting a leading role on Broadway and a nomination. You can see just how biased and unfair the Tony’s are.  

Anyways, I shockingly don’t think McDonald will claim this award because there are so many icons in this category. It would be wonderful if Hilty won (as a long time fan of hers), but Simard and her are really a duo in Death Becomes Her. You can’t have one without the other, so if Hilty is awarded Simard should be too and that’s just not possible. It will be Scherzinger, people worship her just as much as both Hilty and McDonald. I can’t say I completely understand why. Let’s just say we all moved on a little too fast from a certain Instagram comment… 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play:

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck 

Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!

Jon Michael Hill, Purpose

Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face

Harry Lennix, Purpose

Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

It will go to Clooney due to popularity. It is what it is.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play:

Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California 

Mia Farrow, The Roommate 

LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose 

Sadie Sink, John Proctor is the Villain 

Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

I hope Sadie Sink will win because who doesn’t love Sadie Sink? Her performance made me laugh as much as it made me cry. I think Sarah Snook will take home this award because doing a one woman show is hard enough, but can you believe she's playing 26 roles?!?

Best Revival of a Play:

Eureka Day

Romeo + Juliet

Thornton Wilder's Our Town

Yellow Face

I didn’t get a chance to see any of these, on that account this is solely a guess and I have no preference who wins. All I know is that Romeo + Juliet was loved by fans, but didn't get the best reviews. Honestly that is because it was marketed towards Gen Z, so right off the bat Tony voters are going to hate it. I didn’t hear too much about Yellow Face, but unfortunately Roundabout productions often go unrecognized at the Tonys. Unless they did something completely shocking or fresh with Our Town, then I can’t say it will win either. 

Best Revival of a Musical:

Floyd Collins

Gypsy

Pirates! The Penzance Musical

Sunset Blvd.

Pirates! was so much fun and I thought the New Orleans concept was super creative. The team obviously worked very hard to reinvent the show, altering the book and orchestrations. Sadly, as I just mentioned, Roundabout Productions don’t get enough love. Gypsy was just okay in my opinion. I mean the show itself is an amazing golden-age musical, sadly the creative team did nothing to update it or renew it. This will be another award that Sunset Blvd inevitably takes home. 

Best Play:

English, Author: Sanaz Toossi

The Hills of California, Author: Jez Butterwort 

John Proctor is the Villain, Author: Kimberly Belflower 

Oh, Mary!, Author: Cole Escola

Purpose Author: Brandon Jacobs-Jenkins

By far John Proctor is the Villain was my favorite play I’ve seen this season and now one of my favorite plays of all-time. I didn’t go into the show thinking John Proctor was the protagonist, though I found this piece valuable. I think everyone needs to see it. I don’t think it will be taken seriously by Tony voters because to put it simply, it's about highschool girls and directed towards younger people. I think that's sad. I think Oh, Mary! will win Best Play. It will not only award Escola’s writing, but in a way it will award his acting in the show too.

Best Musical:

Buena Vista Social Club

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical

And last but not least… Best Musical! For a long time this season I thought Maybe Happy Ending was a shoo-in for this category, but I’m done being in-denial. I have heard many great things about Buena Vista Social Club and seeing that it celebrates hispanic culture and a certain President is currently attacking the hispanic/immigrant population it will be viewed as topical. That is understandable, but I will argue that Maybe Happy Ending is relevant too.

Maybe Happy Ending brings up how often we dispose of technology, quickly on to the next new and “trendy” thing. This is also a metaphor for consumerism and if you think about it, how humans contribute to global warming because of how wasteful we have become. Furthermore, during Trump's last term he increased violence toward the Asian population due to the the horrible rhetoric and false information he spread during the Corona Virus outbreak. If current events do play a role in the Tony Awards then I think Maybe Happy Ending is just as deserving. Another great thing about the show is that the majority of the actors are Asian, but the race of the characters is not integral to the plot line. I think that does a beautiful thing for identity and diversity. It allows more people to see themselves in deep and well-written leading roles on Broadway and in characters that are not solely defined by one's culture. Despite the fact that Maybe Happy Ending is sort of the “small show” underdog this year I think there could be a toss up between it and Buena Vista Social Club.

This is definitely the hardest time I’ve ever had writing predictions. I kept second-guessing myself! Just remember that no matter how the Tony Awards play out, they serve as a reminder that Broadway has a long way to go when it comes to accessibility, diversity, and inclusion. Let me know your Tony predictions in the comments below or who you're rooting for! Hopefully I get to sneak a couple more shows in before Tony day!